{"generated_at":"2026-06-25T06:13:09.788Z","positioning":"Cascadian is the agent-native causal decision substrate — one MCP server in front of one Postgres, sitting between the numbers an agent watches and the decisions it makes. It hands an agent five things between a question and a defensible decision: tritemporal memory (every fact carries as_of and available_at, so the system physically cannot lie about what was knowable), a governed causal graph (agents propose, humans own truth), an identification gate (no causal estimate without a valid identification basis — otherwise exploratory, and labeled), simulate_intervention (do(X=x) on the approved graph, every knock-on effect with its assumptions labeled), and a decision ledger (expectations frozen before outcomes, so judgment compounds). Six invariants are enforced structurally — by schema constraints, append-only storage, and mandatory service paths — never by prompt.","world":{"fetched_at":"2026-06-25T06:13:09.325Z","sources":["polymarket","kalshi"],"markets":[{"question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.2335,"change1d":-0.011,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181"},{"question":"Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?","probability":0.0025,"change1d":null,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026"},{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.755,"change1d":0.02,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181"},{"question":"Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?","probability":0.0035,"change1d":null,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026"},{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.0145,"change1d":0.002,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181"},{"question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.0035,"change1d":null,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181"},{"question":"Fed rate hike in 2026?","probability":0.555,"change1d":-0.04,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026"},{"question":"Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?","probability":0.8085,"change1d":0.0105,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026"},{"question":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?","probability":0.65,"change1d":0.09,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfed/fed-funds-rate"},{"question":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?","probability":0.02,"change1d":0.01,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfed/fed-funds-rate"},{"question":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?","probability":0.29,"change1d":-0.04,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfed/fed-funds-rate"},{"question":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?","probability":0.99,"change1d":0,"category":"FED & RATES","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfed/fed-funds-rate"},{"question":"Will there be a recession in 2026?","probability":0.1,"change1d":-0.03,"category":"MACRO","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecssnber/recession"},{"question":"Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?","probability":0.241,"change1d":-0.0005,"category":"MACRO","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-by"},{"question":"Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?","probability":0.043,"change1d":0.0105,"category":"MACRO","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/june-inflation-us-annual-20260610151727862"}]},"causal_layer":{"status":"illustrative — live pipeline ships with the product","example_pathway":{"label":"ILLUSTRATIVE","question":"If GPU export controls tighten, what happens to inference prices?","intervention":"do(gpu_export_controls = tightened)","nodes":["gpu_export_controls","accelerator_supply","datacenter_capex","frontier_training_runs","inference_price"],"edges":[{"from":"gpu_export_controls","to":"accelerator_supply","sign":"-","mechanism":"licensing narrows the export lane for top-bin accelerators","status":"approved"},{"from":"accelerator_supply","to":"datacenter_capex","sign":"+","mechanism":"constrained supply delays buildouts and reprices planned capacity","status":"approved"},{"from":"accelerator_supply","to":"frontier_training_runs","sign":"+","mechanism":"compute scarcity forces labs to ration training compute","status":"proposed"},{"from":"accelerator_supply","to":"inference_price","sign":"-","mechanism":"less serving capacity online keeps inference prices elevated","status":"approved"}],"note":"In the product, every edge carries a claimed mechanism, supporting evidence, and a human approval; no effect is quoted without passing the identification gate."}},"connect":{"mcp":"claude mcp add cascadian https://mcp.cascadian.ai/alpha","docs":"https://cascadian.ai/mcp-api","llms":"https://cascadian.ai/llms.txt"},"license":"CC-BY-4.0 — attribute Cascadian; market data via Polymarket & Kalshi public APIs"}